Atlas of the 2016 Elections by Robert H. Watrel

Author:Robert H. Watrel
Language: eng
Format: epub
ISBN: 9781538104231
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers

Larger urban counties, where Clinton received majorities or pluralities, include: Douglas County, Nebraska (Omaha); Lancaster County, Nebraska (Lincoln); Wyandotte County, Kansas (Kansas City); and Dallas County (Dallas), Harris and Fort Bend Counties (Houston), and Bexar County (San Antonio) in Texas. The remainder of counties that gave Clinton majorities or pluralities, have universities: Clay County, South Dakota (University of South Dakota); Lancaster County, Nebraska (University of Nebraska–Lincoln); Douglas County, Kansas (University of Kansas); and Travis County, Texas (University of Texas–Austin).

When comparing the vote returns between the 2012 and 2016 elections, a shift in the electorate is not readily apparent (figure 5.5). However, when looking over changes in the percentage of the Democratic votes from the 2012 to 2016 elections by county, the scale of the swing toward the Republican candidate becomes clearer. If there was any representation of how unpopular Hillary Clinton was in the Great Plains region, this map shows it. In all of the counties in North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, and Oklahoma there was an increase in the vote for the Republican candidate. In only two states, Kansas and Texas, are there counties that saw an increase in Democratic support between 2012 and 2016. Counties with an increase of 5 percent of more for Clinton were in urban counties in Texas (Dallas, Houston, and Austin). The remainder of counties that saw a Democratic increase of 4.9 percent or less are a smattering of urban, suburban, and rural counties.

Not only has the Republican Party dominated presidential politics in the Great Plains states but also, over the last ten to fifteen years, the Republicans have increased their hold over state governments and delegations to the US Congress, so much so that several of these states can now be considered one-party states. For example, currently, in all six of the Great Plains states, Republicans hold a majority of executive offices (e.g., governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, etc.). In four states, North Dakota, South Dakota, Kansas, and Oklahoma, Republicans have supermajorities—more than 66 percent representation—in both houses of the legislature. Nebraska has a nonpartisan unicameral legislature, but it would be misleading to say it is not dominated by conservative legislators; it can essentially be thrown into the ranks of the supermajority category. Only Texas does not hold Republican supermajorities, although Republicans enjoy a little over 63 percent representation in both legislative bodies.

This trend in Republican popularity is also evident in US congressional delegations. As of the 2016 election, there are no Democratic members in the US House of Representatives from the five Great Plains states north of Texas. Although this does not equate to very many House seats (for example, North and South Dakota only have an at-large member, Nebraska 3, Kansas 4, and Oklahoma 5), many of these seats were competitive for Democratic candidates just ten years ago. Texas is the only Great Plains state that has Democratic members in its US House of Representatives delegation with eleven members out of a total of thirty-six for the state.

In the US Senate,

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